The study revealed signs of wash trading on the Kalshi platform

An analytical report has been published, which claims that a significant portion of the trading volume of perpetual futures on the Kalshi platform is fictitious. The authors of the study point to signs of "wash trading" - a manipulative practice in which a market participant acts as both the buyer and seller of the same asset.

During the analysis, mechanical order sizes were identified, which are repeated with high frequency, which is uncharacteristic of the market behavior of real traders. Also, the absence of significant open interest was recorded, which usually accompanies high trading volumes on legitimate financial platforms.

An additional factor contributing to suspicious activity is the system of free rebates for participants engaged in self-clearing. In the opinion of the researchers, such a commission structure creates a financial incentive for generating artificial turnover within the platform without actually changing the market position.

These findings are based on statistical analysis of transaction logs available in the public domain. The authors emphasize that the lack of correlation between trading volume and changes in open positions is a key indicator that liquidity on the platform may be fabricated to attract user attention.

Similar studies cast doubt on the transparency of pricing mechanisms on specialized prediction markets. The identified anomalies indicate the need for a more rigorous audit of trading operations on platforms that use algorithmic models to provide liquidity.