Experts were wrong in assessing the speed of development of artificial intelligence

Leading specialists in the field of artificial intelligence systematically underestimate the speed of progress in the industry, a conclusion reached by analysts of the Forecasting Research Institute in a new large-scale study. According to the data obtained, AI systems reached the level of a gold medal at the International Mathematical Olympiad five years earlier than the median estimate of experts predicted. At the same time, the current annual revenue of Anthropic turned out to be about five times higher than the most daring expectations of specialists. At the same time, experts' forecasts regarding the real implementation of technologies in areas such as autonomous vehicles show a more balanced and ambiguous picture. The gap between theoretical predictions and the actual speed of commercialization continues to grow. The results obtained highlight the complexity of long-term planning in the technology sector against the backdrop of exponential growth in computing power and algorithmic breakthroughs.